Forecast: travel expected to grow faster than the global economy over the coming decade

At the same time, the sector is expected to support around 376 million jobs globally next year, equivalent to one in nine jobs worldwide.

WTTC expects the global travel industry to grow by 3.2 per cent in 2026, compared with projected global GDP growth of 2.4 per cent. Over the next ten years, travel and tourism is expected to grow by an average of 3.6 per cent per year - around 1.5 times faster than the global economy as a whole.

The report has been produced together with the analysis company Oxford Economics.

Europe is expected to outperform the wider economy

WTTC highlights Europe in particular as a region where the travel industry continues to develop significantly more strongly than the broader economy.

While Europe’s combined GDP is expected to grow by around one per cent in 2026, the region’s travel and tourism sector is projected to increase by 3.6 per cent. International visitor spending in Europe is also expected to rise by 7.1 per cent next year - well above the global average of 3.7 per cent.

According to WTTC, many travellers are increasingly choosing destinations closer to their home markets in times of economic uncertainty and rising costs.

Southern Europe is highlighted as particularly strong. Spain is expected to see growth in the travel industry of 3.7 per cent in 2026, while Italy is projected to grow by 3.8 per cent.

WTTC also notes that Spain received 96.8 million international visitors in 2025 — the second highest number in Europe after France — and recorded Europe’s highest international tourism spending at €115.1 billion.

Regionalisation is affecting travel

Several international analyses point in the same direction as WTTC: travel continues to increase, but growth is becoming more regional and unevenly distributed.

UN Tourism expects international tourism globally to grow by 3–4 per cent in 2026, while also noting that travellers are increasingly choosing regional and nearby destinations as uncertainty rises.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is also expecting continued growth in international air traffic, but highlights rising fuel costs and capacity challenges as key risk factors.

Developments differ clearly between regions. In Europe, intra-European traffic and the Mediterranean markets continue to develop strongly, while North America is affected by higher cost levels and weaker inbound international traffic.

In Asia, several markets are growing, particularly in South-East Asia and Japan, but developments are described as more uneven than in Europe.

The long-haul market is becoming more divided

Several analyses also indicate that the long-haul market is becoming increasingly split.

The premium segment and high-income travellers continue to drive demand for intercontinental travel, while the more price-sensitive leisure segment is being more clearly affected by higher costs and weaker purchasing power.

At the same time, rising fuel prices and uncertainty surrounding airspace and geopolitics - particularly in the Middle East and parts of Asia - are placing further pressure on parts of the long-haul market.

WTTC also highlights artificial intelligence and new technology as important drivers of future growth, both in customer experience, efficiency improvements and skills development.

Faces criticism for optimistic forecasts

WTTC is regarded as one of the travel industry's most influential organisations, but has also been criticised for using relatively optimistic growth forecasts.

Both the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have meanwhile warned of weaker global growth, continued inflationary pressure and increased geopolitical risks.

Other analyses also point to growing challenges linked to climate regulations, rising costs for air travel and increased pressure on popular destinations.

Despite this, the overall picture in several international forecasts remains clear: the travel industry is expected to continue growing - but in a significantly more uncertain and uneven market than during the recovery years after the pandemic.