Growth around the Mediterranean as travellers are driven from the Middle East
Geopolitical unrest and high fuel prices drive tourists towards the Mediterranean, where growth is expected to increase significantly by 2026.
This is evident from an analysis presented by David Goodger, Managing Director EMEA at Tourism Economics at Oxford Economics, during the HBX Group's MarketHub Europe 2026 conference currently taking place in Malta. If the negative trend continues, the decline could be as much as 59 percent.
The decline is driven by geopolitical unrest, higher oil and aviation fuel prices, and continued uncertainty. This makes the development in the Middle East particularly divergent compared to other regions, which are either growing or close to zero.
Among the markets simultaneously advancing are several around the Mediterranean, in southern Europe and northern Africa. In the forecast for 2026, Italy is at 12 percent growth and Spain at 10 percent.
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